User-Oriented Measures of Effectiveness for the Evaluation of Transport and Dispersion Models.

摘要

In 1999, IDA conducted a study for the Office of the Secretary of Defense that, in part, explored military user requirements for hazard predictions. During that study, it became apparent that there was a need for measures that clearly communicate to the user the relative worth of a model's predictions. During fiscal year 2000, a series of studies in support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) was begun. The goal of these studies is to improve the verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) of hazard prediction and assessment models and capabilities. These studies are part of a larger joint VV&A effort that DTRA and the Department of Energy, via the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), are conducting. This joint effort includes comparisons of the LLNL and DTRA transport and dispersion (T&D) modeling systems, NARAC and HPAC, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and describe a family of novel user-oriented MOEs, focusing on their interpretation and usage. The application of these MOEs to the comparison of HPAC and NARAC predictions of the 1956 Prairie Grass field trial observations is also described in this paper.