Keeping Your Dog in the Fight: An Evaluation of Synchronization and Decision-Making.

摘要

This monograph examines the relationship between battlefield synchronization and decision-making. Beginning with a review of rational analytical decision theory and Gary Klein's recognition primed decision theory, the monograph reviews the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) to determine if the MDMP and its resultant products are sufficient to achieve and maintain synchronization of the effects of distributed operations. In addition to the detailed review of the MDMP, this monograph considers the relationship between complexity, uncertainty, and synchronization. Klein's recognition primed decision-making (RPD) theory, based on extensive study of fire fighters, emergency medical service workers, and military commanders describes the intuitive manner which experienced people most frequently use to solve problems. RPD is a rapid process that foregoes extensive analysis to generate feasible solutions. When employing RPD techniques, decision-makers filter environmental cues and create a solution hypothesis using an analogy or a metaphor. This hypothesis is then tested using mental simulation to ensure it is acceptable. RPD is very effective when the decision-maker has substantial expertise in solving the type of problem at hand, however it is adversely affected by uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity. RPD seeks satisfactory, rather than optimal, solutions. Rational analysis is a common alternative to RPD, seeking optimal solutions through deliberate, detailed analysis. Rational analysis provides the theoretical underpinnings of the MDMP. Rational analysis is a linear procedures used to solve complex, interdisciplinary problems that exceed the expertise of any single decision-maker. Rational analysis is a time consuming process because of the sequential nature of analysis and decision.