Improvement of Two Operational Models for Advance Warning of Geoeffective Disturbances of Solar Origin.

摘要

To improve the prediction of traveling solar disturbances that impact the geospace environment. Such disturbances, which are associated with both coronal holes and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched from the Sun, can cause substantial geomagnetic effects, including the crippling of satellites, disruption of radio communications, and damage to electric power grids. To improve and extend the predictive capabilities of two space weather models currently in operational use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s Space Environment Center (NOAA/SEC). The first, the Wang & Sheeley model (WS), predicts the background solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. The WS model is being improved though the incorporation of additional and more realistic, physics-based models into the prediction routine. The second is the Chen model that predicts the occurrence, strength, and duration of large non-recurrent storms due to transient events on the Sun such as CMEs. This model s prediction routine is being modified in an effort to improve its predictive capability and reliability.