What's New About the New Terrorism and How Dangerous Is It; Journal article

摘要

The 'new terrorism' is said to be more networked, ad hoc, lethal, and dangerous than the old. This assessment of these claims concludes that terrorism currently differs little from its previous manifestations, except for the somewhat increased likelihood that a chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiological weapon might be used by terrorists. This does not necessarily mean that terrorism is more dangerous than it was. The critical factor in assessing the threat posed by terrorism is whether it is used strategically. Over the past decade, the belief has grown among some who study terrorism that it is changing, that it has become 'the new terrorism.' This terrorism is reputedly distinguished from the old by a new structure, a new kind of personnel, and a new attitude toward violence. The new structure is a network facilitated by information technology, the new personnel are amateurs who often come together in ad hoc or transitory groupings, and the new attitude is an increased willingness to cause mass casualties, perhaps by using chemical, biological, nuclear, or radiological (CBNR) weapons. Taken together, network organization and amateur participation suggest that the 'new terrorists' no longer need state sponsorship as much as their predecessors did. The impression left by accounts of the new terrorism is that it is more dangerous or at least more difficult to counter than its predecessor. Now that this view has been well developed and ably presented, it is time to assess it. Ultimately, we must ask whether what we see in terrorism today is really new and in what ways, and if it poses more of a threat than the old terrorism did. On balance, we will conclude that there is little that is new in the new terrorism, and what is new is not necessarily more dangerous or difficult to counter than the old.