Optimizing Active Guard Reserve Enlisted Manpower.

摘要

The principal mission of the United States Army Reserve (USAR) is to maintain properly trained and equipped units available to promptly mobilize for war, national emergency, or other contingency operations, and to assist the Army in projecting land combat power. The Active Guard Reserve (AGR) program provides active duty reserve soldiers (officer and enlisted) to Army Reserve units and Regular Army units to support reserve missions. The proper placement and manning of the AGR force is critical to the readiness of the Army Reserve and to the strength of the Total Army. To assist the efforts of the Office of the Chief Army Reserve, Program Analysis and Evaluation division (OCAR-PAE) to analyze the AGR enlisted force, this thesis develops an optimization model known as the AGR Enlisted Manpower Projection Model (AGR-EMPM). The primary purpose of the model is to serve as a manpower forecasting and decision analysis tool. The model aggregates at the career management field level by rank, active federal service, and time in grade. With a 7-year planning horizon, the model is ideally suited for near ten policy analysis. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model, scenarios relating to stop loss and accessions are analyzed.