Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf.

摘要

This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. The project was commissioned by Lt General M. Esmond, who was then the Deputy Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force (USAF) for Air and Space Operations (AF/XO), and Lt General Charles Wald, commander of the 9th Air Force. The monograph presents analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. It considers both the halt campaign and other counter-maneuver-force operations. Our purpose in this monograph is to help inform development of military strategies that are adaptive over time. U.S. operational capabilities for fighting a war today in the Persian Gulf region are adequate and well understood, but changes are on the horizon and uncertainties- such as anti-access strategies-loom. Planners are therefore interested in anticipating needed adaptations and in developing related hedge capabilities. No study is needed to Imow that bigger threats are more troublesome, that warning is important, that more stealth is desirable, or that advanced munitions are valuable. It is useful, however, to have quantitative methods for measuring the potential value of enhanced capabilities. Analysis can illuminate tradeoffs when it comes time to allocate resources and action priorities. The most valuable analysis sheds light on how flexible, adaptive, and robust a given capability would be across circum- stances and assumptions, and on how much of that capability would be enough. It follows that higher-level planning can benefit from exploratory analysis across the dimensions of un- certainty-so long as the analysis is fast, broad, flexible, and understandable. In what follows we develop a state-of-the-art model and methodology for such analysis. We also summarize insights from analysis to date.