Conditional Analysis of Unsaturated Flow in Randomly Heterogeneous Soils Without Monte Carlo Simulation or Upscaling.

摘要

Our project aimed at developing theoretical and computational methods to predict unsaturated flow in randomly heterogeneous soils and to assess the corresponding prediction errors. Our objective was to avoid the need for either Monte Carlo simulation or upscaling, by developing ways to render predictions and uncertainty assessments directly, in a computationally efficient and accurate manner. This final technical report describes our accomplishments, which consist of developing two novel approaches, one based on the Kirchhoff transformation and the other on a Gaussian method of approximation. Both methods have been implemented in two spatial dimensions using the finite element method, and applied to superimposed mean uniform and convergent flows with and without conditioning on measured values of hydraulic conductivity. Methods have been examined to extend the applicability of both methods to transient flows in soils having arbitrary constitutive characteristics. The report cites several papers published, submitted for publication or under preparation based on our work. The project has contributed toward three doctoral dissertations at the University of Arizona.