Understanding Regional Actors: A Case Study

摘要

Since WWII the U.S. has been involved in many regional conflicts in which U.S. leaders have failed to anticipate the actions of regional actors. These failures resulted in some measure from an inability to appreciate the target states' values, priorities, and thought processes. It is possible the estimation process could improve if greater attention was given to the interests, challenges, and opportunities of the regional actors involved, rather than concentrating on U.S. interests. This research project applies the U.S. Army War College Strategic Appraisal process, examining the 1973 Arab-Israeli War from the Egyptian perspective. Using this method would yield a better understanding of factors affecting regional actors, and hence produces superior insight into their actions. To use this method most effectively, the U.S. intelligence community should gather teams of regional experts tasked to analyze the world environment from the perspective of key regional actors. The understanding gleaned by this approach could improve the ability of the government to predict and respond to diplomatic and military events affecting U. S. national interests.