Developing Confidence in Measures of Effectiveness for Complex Defensive Systems (With Application to the Ballistic Missile Defense System)

摘要

This paper has presented techniques for developing confidence based, deployed performance estimates using early test data combined with engineering judgment for a complex system of systems. The approach used is to part it ion all available test results into homogeneous subsets, use historical data for similar systems in a limited manner, and apply Bayesian techniques to develop confidence in the performance estimates. As more test results become available over the system life cycle, the more heavily the test results are weighted until deployed test data is available when confidence will be derived solely from test data.