Oil Price Movements and Globalisation: Is There a Connection; Journal article

摘要

There has been considerable speculation over the years concerning the cost of large oil price movements ('shocks') to consuming countries. For the advanced industrial countries, the conventional wisdom appears to be that, because these economies are becoming more service-oriented, less energy is needed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) and hence a lessening of the economic costs associated with increased oil prices. On the other hand, because many newly industrialized or catching-up countries are entering a phase of energy-intensive industrialization, the same oil shocks are placing an increasing burden on these economies. One can easily argue, however, that industrialization is only one facet of economic change taking place in the world economy. Conceivably, the rapid pace of increased globalization may significantly modify these patterns. To test this proposition, an operational definition of globalization is developed and shown to be positively associated with the strength of oil price shocks. The main finding of the study is that increased globalization appears to be strengthening the impact of oil price shocks in the advanced industrial countries, but to a much lesser extent in the newly industrializing countries.