Handbook on Long Term Defence Planning (Manuel sur la planification de defense a long terme).

摘要

Long Term Defence Planning deals with shaping tomorrow's defence forces for an alliance or a nation. Given the significant period it takes to implement a new force structure, partly due to lengthy development and acquisition times, Long Term Defence Planning (LTDP) usually focuses 10 to 30 years into the future. To deal with an increasingly complex security environment producing disparate competing demands, decisionmakers need increasingly sophisticated support in the LTDP process (LTDPP). The handbook presents a 'best practice' model for the LTDP process. This model contains the following 10 steps: inputs, campaign options, initial force packages, cost-effectiveness testing, concurrency testing, force structuring, total force costing, risk/cost tradeoffs, structure development measurement, and feedback. The handbook also addresses organizational and implementation issues and provides key insights and recommendations. Appendix I discusses the use of scenarios in LTDP. Looking into the future is dealing with uncertainty. A scenario depicts a single plausible future situation and/or a path towards a future. It gives insight into policy issues, alternative options and critical factors. It contains a context- dependent description of a possible future situation, or a hypothetical chain of events leading to the situation and a desired final end state. Appendix 2 identifies a range of quantitative and qualitative tools that are available to assist analysts in carrying out a long-term planning process. The models and tools were compiled by participating NATO nations. (6 tables, 4 figures, 14 refs.).