Clausewitz Counsels Napoleon III on the Plan for Regime Change in Mexico (1862-1867)

摘要

The leader of a powerful western nation decided to intervene in a large, sparsely populated desert country across the ocean to stop atrocities perpetrated by that government on its people and to gain influence in that region. He was convinced by exiles from that country that his army would be met with tears of joy by the entire population who were eager to throw off local rule and let an outsider have control. Leery of going it alone, this leader built a coalition of the willing and invaded. After swift initial successes, the army found itself campaigning in a country three times the size of Texas against guerilla forces supported by a neighboring country. There were calls for more troops but the leader refused to increase the force. The resources expected from the invaded country to offset campaign costs failed to materialize as promised, and the western nation suffered significant economic drain. Is this President George W. Bush in Iraq in 2003. Actually this story, 140 years old, describes French Emperor Napoleon III s invasion of Mexico in 1862. Had Carl von Clausewitz been Napoleon III s military advisor from 1862 to 1867, he would have counseled against a military campaign for regime change in Mexico as unwinnable due to American opposition; and if initiated anyway, his campaign plan would have focused on neutralizing the two centers of gravity.