Hurricane Isabel: A Numerical Model Study of Storm Surge Along the East Coast of the United States

摘要

On the 6th of September 2003, a westward moving tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic began to organize and evolve into tropical storm Isabel. By September 7, Isabel had become a full-fledged hurricane and began to move west-northwest. Isabel continued her northwest track through the 8th and 9th, intensifying into a major hurricane. By September 11th, Isabel had become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and maintained this high level of intensity through September 15th. During this time Isabel took a more westward track, until it began to turn northwestward on the 15th. On the 16th, Isabel began to weaken and headed in a north-northwestward direction toward the North Carolina coast. On September 18th, at approximately 17Z, Isabel made landfall near Drum Point, North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100 mph and a minimum central pressure of 957 mb. Hurricane forecast winds extended 115 miles from the center of its eye with tropical storm force winds extending 345 miles out from the center. By 1500Z (11 am EDT) on September 19th, Isabel was downgraded to a tropical depression located northeast of Cleveland, Ohio and was moving rapidly to the north. Numerical ocean models can be used to both forecast and hindcast storm surge events. These models use the wind and pressure forcing associated with a hurricane or tropical storm to associated storm surge.