U.S.-China Relations: Communication and Misperception in the Taiwan Strait

摘要

Taiwan's political status remains the central, most difficult issue in U.S.-China relations. The question has created tensions that erupted in three crises of direct confrontation between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait. The central dilemma in solving these conflicts has been that both states tied vital national interests to the issue. Despite the fact that both sides have managed to avoid the Taiwan question when negotiating agreements in less sensitive areas, Taiwan's status continues to present the greatest risk factor for a future armed conflict between the United States and China. This thesis examines the three Taiwan Strait crises and argues that experiential learning coupled with a realpolitik view of international relations has led decision- makers to follow consistent modes of behavior when handling them. The development of positive relations between the United States and China after 1971 has not mitigated the inherent risks presented by the Taiwan question. The thesis concludes that the value of strategic ambiguity is overestimated, given the likelihood of misperception by both parties in a mutual deterrence relationship. Since a future crisis may not be averted, the United States and China must develop robust lines of diplomatic communication to avoid inadvertent escalation.