Determining the Number of Officers to Graduate from the Naval School and the Number of Naval School Graduated Officers to Promote by Rank in Order to Meet Actual and Future Needs of the Mexican Navy

摘要

The Mexican Navy is challenged with too few 0-1 to 0-3 officers and too many 0-6 to 0-9 officers. This research developed three models to explain the challenge. Through the use of a transition probabilities matrix model one predicts the number of graduates from the Mexican Naval School based on accessions. Model two is a transition probability matrix that uses model one's output to forecast the distribution of Naval School Graduate Officers (NSG0) by grade over the next ten years. Model three is a non-linear objective function that observes gaps between expected inventory and demand of NSG0 over the same period.