Pre-Game-Theory Based Information Technology (GAMBIT) Study

摘要

DARPA sees potential value in a strategic reasoning simulation tool - tentatively named GAMBIT (Game-Theory Based Information Technology). Net Exchange has completed a GAMBIT feasibility study. The study involved characterizing tool requirements, determining the readiness of game theory and IT, demonstrating a historical case in a GAMBIT-like scenario, and recommending a development path forward. The generic GAMBIT scenario has been characterized as Dynamic Hierarchical Gaming (DHG). Game theory is not yet ready to fully support analysis of DHG, though existing partial analysis suggests that a full treatment is practical in the midterm. IT is generally ready to support development of a GAMBIT tool with the critical exception of software agents with sufficient strategic reasoning capability - a good deal of development is required here. Management of R&D among the developers of science instruments for a planetary mission was demonstrated in a distributed software agent environment. The demonstration results from this GAMBIT-like scenario were in accord with observed history. The Diplomacy Test Utility (DTU) has been identified as a path forward. The DTU starts with a known scenario that can be expanded to DHG through a process supported by theory and tested by human play.