Comparison of the Predictive Accuracy of Human Thermoregulatory Models

摘要

The core temperature predictions from four computer models of the human thermoregulatory response were compared with results from laboratory exercise studies published locally and in the open literature. Although none of the models were able to predict deep body temperatures to within an accuracy of 0.1 degrees C to 0.5 degrees C in all instances, the model from the United States Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine (ARIEM) in the form modified by DSTO performed better than the original and better than the rational models published by Xu and Werner and by Lotens and Havenith. However these latter two models are amenable to incremental improvements resulting from relatively small studies and it is therefore recommended that their development be continued at DSTO.