Relationship Between Toxicity Values for the Healthy Subpopulation and the General Population; Briefing charts

摘要

The present chemical warfare (CW) agent toxicity estimates are not suitable for use with the general population (GP) because they are framed for male soldiers. A method was created to convert the median effective dose and probit (or Bliss) slope to estimates applicable to the GP. It was assumed that individual susceptibilities have a log-normal distribution. Two mathematical models were developed to describe a healthy or sensitive subpopulation (SP). In the tail model, the SP consists of all individuals having susceptibilities within a tail of the GP distribution. In the bell model, the SP has a lognormal distribution. The median and the probit slope of an SP were determined as a function of the SP size. The two models gave similar results. Historical military demographics were used to estimate the size of the healthy SP from which military personnel are drawn. Uncertainty factors were obtained from the tail and bell models. Uncertainty factors from both models were consistent with the results of two previous studies that quantified differences between populations. The model can be readily incorporated into an casualty assessment module to permit rapid recalculation of toxicity estimates. This will allow the commander or staff to better estimate the degree of collateral damage to civilian populations from CW agent attacks and incidents.