Identification and Resolution of Problems with Methodology Used in Selection of Technological Concepts for R&D Support

摘要

This theses presents information on how to better evaluate the merits of competing technological concepts. This project is concerned with evaluation of the merits of competing technological concepts and managing the R&D investments needed to bring them to fruition. A weakness of the current R&D process is that arguments regarding who should receive funding come from a concept's proponents, who are usually interested and biased. More objective evaluation methods are needed. As part of this work it is important to understand better how qualified experts evaluate technological concepts. Can a probabilistically formulated method of integrating knowledge of various performance attributes provide better understanding of the likely performance of a technological concept. This is the question of interest.