Integrating Effects-Based and Attrition-Based Modeling

摘要

The concept of Effects-Based Operations (EBO), enabled by Network- Centric Warfare (NCW), is developing rapidly as diplomats and war planners move to confront global threats in the new millennium. Modeling the NCW EBO process attempts to codify the belief structure and reasoning of adversaries and their cause-effect relationships with US and coalition actions, including mitigating undesired effects. A systematic EBO approach requires modeling, simulation, and evaluation tools to quantify the expected effects for different Courses of Action (COA). The problem with realizing a systematic approach is that typically the tools used at the strategic level are different than the tools used at or close to the tactical and operational level. This paper proposes a new method for bridging the quantitative measures provided by these toolsets. The paper describes an end-to-end process for developing the higher-level effects-based model, selecting and interfacing the attrition-based models with the EBO model, and performing evaluations using the combination of the different-level models. This illustration shows where the interfacing can be done between the models as well as how additional events or effects can be added to quantify performance parameters at the interface boundary.