Introduction to Bayesian Belief Networks and their Applications to Land Operations

摘要

Bayesian belief networks are graphical tools that aid reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. The networks represent a system over which a probability distribution is defined, modelling uncertainty both quantitatively and qualitatively. They allow a user to make inferences when only limited information is available. Mathematically, a Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph whose nodes represent variables. A link from one node to another represents a causal dependency. This report investigates the use of Bayesian networks in the land force environment. It provides a simple introduction to the networks, how they are constructed and how they are used. Some examples are presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the networks, a range of land force applications are discussed, and some theoretical extensions are examined.