Evolution of Transdniestrian Conflict in the Republic of Moldova: Prospects for Its Solution

摘要

This thesis analyzes the causes and evolution of the conflict in the Republic of Moldova, and the potential of three conflict-regulating mechanisms to facilitate a final political solution. The leading cause of the conflict is the competition among post-Soviet politicians, who are fighting over the division of the state and redistribution of political-economic benefits. In their fight for power, the elites mobilized the instrumental and primordial grievances of the people, thus giving an ethnic aspect to the confrontation. An important intervening variable in the conflict's escalation into a military confrontation has been Russia's interest in maintaining political-economic and military domination over the region. Over time, the ethnic causes of the conflict were eliminated, thus creating the necessary conditions for a final political settlement. Unfortunately, the status quo suits the politico-economic interests of the Transdniestrian elites and, reinforced by Russia's interest in keeping the region under its influence, is encouraging them to take a radical position toward political negotiations and to demand anything but independence, a fact that cannot be accepted by the legal Moldovan Government. In such circumstances, the final solution depends on the attitudes of the external players. Yet even they disagree on the method that should be used to resolve the conflict, thus reinforcing the deadlock in negotiations. This thesis argues that, under the current circumstances, none of the conflict-regulating mechanisms that have been proposed (i.e., partition, confederation, or federation) will solve the conflict, but federalism has the most potential to serve as a tool for unification and conflict-resolution. This can only happen if the international community and internal players promote democratic values and rule of law, reduce the benefits of the status quo situation, and offer political-economic and cultural autonomy to the Transdniestrian region. (102 refs.) 7.