Geopolitical Dilemmas of China's Growing Thirst for Oil

摘要

The dilemmas of China's growing thirst for oil are numerous. The increasing use of oil is inevitable and the trend cannot be controlled by China's leaders. For China to grow economically and for its people to prosper, oil consumption must increase. If China's leaders do not encourage economic growth and the Chinese people do not prosper, the political ramifications will be adverse. There is already growing political unrest and widespread demonstrations, some violent, by laid-off workers--to be competitive in the world market, former state owned enterprises are shedding workers. There are severe environmental problems, pollution is ruining the quality of life in many affected areas. The growing consumption of oil in the transportation sector will worsen pollution, especially in the large cities. There are geopolitical ramifications: China will have to reconsider its relations with Middle Eastern countries that supply ever increasing amounts of their oil. China must strive for economic and military stability in the region. If China dedicates resources to upgrade its military to protect the sealanes and other transportation routes for oil, it will take valuable assets away from needed improvements to infrastructure and will add to tensions regionally and with the United States. Regional players and the United States are valuable trading partners. A military conflict will result in a disruption of oil supply for China, which will cause a shock to China's economy that would be very unpopular politically. As China opens their economy, political power is decentralizing, shifting to those centers that are prospering from world trade. This is threatening the authoritarian government.