Modeling Violent Non-State Actors: A Summary of Concepts and Methods.

摘要

Violent non-state actors (VNSA), such as terrorist organizations, play an increasingly important role in the international security environment. Effectively deterring, coercing, disrupting or destroying terrorist organizations requires a subtle understanding of the factors that influence their growth and formation. Here, we discuss the importance of formulating systems-level computer models that may enable us to forecast VNSA growth, and that also give us leverage for effects-based operations and planning. We apply tools from systems engineering to turn our qualitative systems-level mental models of VNSA into quantitative computer models. By using a systems engineering approach, policy-makers will be able to expand the number and quality of their mental models surrounding reasoning about how VNSA develop in order to gain deeper insights. The methodologies used in this project will be useful for analyzing any complex system, not just terrorist organizations.