China on the Move. A Franco-American Analysis of Emerging Chinese Strategic Policies and Their Consequences for Transatlantic Relations

摘要

China's international security environment has changed significantly since September 11, 2001. Regions vital to China, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, have emerged as nodes of instability. U.S. global military presence has dramatically expanded, and U.S. willingness to intervene, where and when it wants to protect U.S. interests, is on the rise. Following 9/11 and the U.S. war on terrorism, the tone and content of U.S.-China relations have changed dramatically. U.S. policymakers now talk about maintaining a cooperative, candid, and constructive relationship with China. U.S. and Chinese policymakers alike have indicated a strategic shift in their willingness to seek opportunities for cooperation and to manage traditional problems in U.S.-China relations. Considering its strategic environment--above all, the strong position of the United States and the insecurity of regions of special interest--China has several basic options: ' Attempt to counter U.S. power politically, economically, and militarily. ' Pursue political cooperation with the United States in current circumstances while building Chinese military power with a view toward countering U.S. influence in the long term. ' Pursue long-term political cooperation with the United States while building Chinese military power. ' Pursue long-term political cooperation with the United States without building Chinese military power. Of these scenarios, the last appears to be counterfactual, in that China is building its military power. As long as the Chinese economy remains healthy, it is therefore unlikely that China would abandon its effort to acquire military capabilities that match its political- economic status and regional security needs and also strengthen its bargaining position vis- -vis the United States. While the United States may try to dissuade China from pursuing certain directions in its military modernization effort, it is unlikely to succeed.