Japan's Space Program: A Fork in the Road.

摘要

This report presents the results of an internally funded RAND study to explore the current status and possible future directions of Japan's space program. In the 25 years from 1969 to 1994, Japan went from a country that had not yet successfully launched a satellite to an emerging space power. Ten years later, in 2004, the Japanese space program has been described by some as undergoing a crisis of confidence in the face of a succession of satellite and launcher failures. This paper examines what has brought these changes about. It explores whether Japan's space program is confronting a crisis, or whether it is merely experiencing the growing pains that all space programs must eventually confront. It provides a brief historical overview of Japan's space program, including the organization of the program and how that organization has changed. It also reviews the status of Japan's satellite reconnaissance program, and examines several key factors that are affecting Japan's space program. Finally, it explores the possible future directions for Japan's space program over the next several years, and some of the possible implications of different paths.