Predicting the Cost per Flying Hour for the F-16 Using Programmatic and Operational Variables

摘要

This research analyzes operational and programmatic data from all Air National Guard and 13 of 14 active duty F-16C/D Fighter Wings (FW) from 1998 to 2004 in search of explanatory variables that influence a wing's Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH). Using data from both the Air Force Total Ownership Cost database and from the Air Force Knowledge Systems database, this research evaluates the predictive ability of the following nine explanatory variables: aircraft age, average sortie duration, MajCOM, base location, utilization rate, percent engine type, percent block, percent deployed, and previous year's CPFH, the last four of which were previously untested. Additionally, this research builds regression models that accurately predict the CPFH of an F-16C/D FW using these operational and programmatic variables. This research concludes that the following variables are highly predictive and quantifies the relative influence of each of these variables: utilization rate, base location, percent block, percent engine type, average age of aircraft, and the previous year's CPFH. Finally, this research identifies a lurking variable and proposes two possible explanations.