21ST Century Terrorism: Wrong Diagnosis, Inadequate Remedy

摘要

From the early 1990s, and especially since September 11, 2001, numerous scholars, politicians and political analysts alike have characterized terrorism as global, religious, irrational, and rising. The theory of the emergence of this 'new terrorism' is well established and can be considered as conventional wisdom. The main characteristics of the 'old terrorism,' its political, local, and rational character, are obsolete in accordance with this line of thinking. In particular, Al Qaeda is thought to be an enemy worth changing the National Security Strategy of the United States and even suspending some civil, not to mention, human rights. However, the decline or disappearance of many prominent terrorist figures or entire groups has been ironically overlooked, or selectively ignored as irrelevant to the 'new' terrorism. This thesis challenges the aforementioned common knowledge and suggests that the 'new terrorism' has very few if any differences from the 'old' one. It remains a purely political, mainly local, and definitely rational activity in a steady or declining stage. Figures provide the following: Incidents by Year from 1997 to 2004 (MIPT Database); Fatalities by Year from 1990 to 2004 (MIPT Database); Incidents by Year from 1985 to 2005 (MIPT Database); Fatalities by Year from 1985 to 2005 (MIPT Database); Terrorist Incidents in the Last Two Decades; Total International Casualties by Region in the Last Two Decades; Total U.S. Citizen Casualties Caused by International Attacks in the Last Two Decades; and Total International Attacks by Region in the Last Two Decades. Tables present the following: Frequencies of Definitional Elements in 109 Definitions of Terrorism; U.S. Department of State Foreign Terrorist Organizations List (April 29, 2004); European Union Foreign Terrorist Organizations List (June 3, 2004); Differences between the Old and the New Terrorism; and Propagandist Uses of Mass Media by Modern Terrorist Groups.