Cognitive Uncertainty and Work Shifts in a Real-World Multi-Task Environment

摘要

The U.S. Army Future Force will require Soldiers to have multiple responsibilities in an information-rich environment. In these environments, Soldiers must attain a state of cognitive readiness that will enable them to perform all tasks with equal success. The ability to make rapid and effective decisions is difficult to do, but this difficulty is increased by the fact that the environment is fraught with uncertainty. It is important to develop tools that assess the cognitive capabilities of the Soldier to perform effectively in uncertain situations so that capabilities of the Soldier meet the performance requirements of the Future Force. Traditionally, uncertainty has been examined at the data or situation level. The authors propose that a new approach be used when one is examining the effects of uncertainty on decision making by focusing on understanding how individuals assess situations and make decisions in addition to understanding the impact of situational elements. Various metrics were identified that assessed the cognitive processes used by individuals to make decisions. One objective of this study was to assess the utility of those metrics for predicting performance in a multi-task environment. The second objective was to examine the effect of work shifts and cognitive uncertainty on performance in the same environment. Data were collected at an emergency operations center (EOC) because it is a realistic multi-task environment and the flow of information in an EOC is similar to that in a tactical operations center. Nineteen EOC operators completed a battery of stress and uncertainty questionnaires. The performance measure was the time required for the operator to complete an emergency call. Results showed that individual differences in coping with uncertainty were related to call time. Information gathered from this study will be used in subsequent research endeavors.