Chinese Oil Dependence: Opportunities and Challenges

摘要

China's dependence on foreign energy sources to fuel its economic growth represents a new influence on her national strategy. Prior to 1993 China was self sufficient in oil production. By 2000 she was importing one million barrels of oil per day this represented one quarter of her petroleum needs. China is projected to be importing eight million barrels per day by 2020 this will represent 75% of her oil requirement. Like Japan in the 1930's a disruption in China's supply of oil; either through events unrelated to Chinese growth or contrived to slow the spread of her power in east Asia; would be viewed by China as a threat to her security and could precipitate a decisive response potentially involving armed conflict. Understanding why oil is so critical to China's national security and what China may do to secure sources of oil in the future will contribute to the western pacific security strategy of the United States. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how oil dependence is shaping China's security strategy identify recent steps China has taken to ensure her continued access to oil and recommend actions the United States should take in light of China's new dependence on foreign oil.