Logging the JSF: Acquisition Logistics and Fleet Management for Modern Fighters

摘要

Within the US Air Force, acquisition, operations, and logistics communities collectively face a perplexing question: What is the best way to plan the acquisition and life-cycle sustainment of a fighter aircraft fleet. To find the answer to this question the following thesis attempts to derive lessons learned from case study analysis to develop a new methodology for future use. Aircraft fleet size, in an acquisition program, is determined by assessing the capabilities necessary to meet current and future operational readiness demands. Aircraft sustainment, although equally important, is typically not considered during early procurement planning due to the difficulty in forecasting the sustainment infrastructure necessary to mitigate effects caused by aging and changing operational requirements. At best a nebulous endeavor, sustainment forecasting is affected by the myriad of dynamic organizational, technological, and budgetary influences caused by rigid DoD acquisition processes and inflexible Congressional appropriations cycles. Risk trade-offs between aircraft performance and costs variables directly influence the operational employment and sustainability of a weapon system over its service life. Quantitative modeling, through sensitivity analysis, provides a method to assess the unforeseen effects of these influences, such as peacetime/wartime attrition, fiscal year budget shortfalls, operational employment variations, and procedural shifts, on a weapon system service-life viability. By measuring the extent that operations and logistics factors have on sortie capacity through sensitivity modeling, acquisitions planners can better validate initial service-life projections, determine fleet size requirements, and avert mid-life-cycle sustainability crises.