Business of Insurgency: The Expansion of Iraq's Shadow Economy

摘要

Media attention on the insurgency in Iraq has tended to focus on dramatic incidents or horrific acts of violence. At the same time, policymakers in the U.S. and other coalition countries have often viewed the insurgency in largely political terms. Yet particularly worrisome is the convergence of large segments of the Iraqi insurgency with elements of organized crime. Unfortunately, improved anti-terrorism effectiveness has resulted in increased resort to criminal activity among several significant groups within the insurgency. So while the political and military aspects of the insurgency have received most of the world's attention the insurgency's subtle shift towards increased reliance on criminal activity has just as important implications for the Iraqi economy. Increased criminal activity is effectively stifling attempts to expand the formal sector. This, in turn, presents a major challenge to the newly elected government- how to stop and reverse the insurgent-led deterioration of the economy and the vicious cycle it has created. It is safe to say that a successful attack on criminal activity in Iraq is as important in determining the country's future as the outcome of the current anti-insurgency campaign. One might even venture to say they are largely one and the same.