Rumors in Iraq: A Guide to Winning Hearts and Minds

摘要

A successful insurgency requires the active support of a comparative few and only acquiescence from the rest of the population. Despite the recognition that winning hearts and minds -- and therefore local cooperation -- is a critical aspect of a successful counterinsurgency, many military planners approach it as an afterthought. This is likely due, at least in part, to the inherent difficulties in determining what the primary concerns and fears are that prevent a populace from cooperating against insurgents, accurately assessing their perceptions of our efforts to reduce those concerns, and measuring our own effectiveness. This article proposes a way to guide and measure effectiveness of the battle for hearts and minds: the study of rumor. It is often rumor that attributes incorrect causes and motivations, fuels misperceptions, and escalates conflicts. By tapping into the abundant reservoir of circulating rumors in Iraq, we can determine the underlying fears, anxieties, and sentiment of the people and use that information to develop a more successful campaign to assess, monitor, and win their support. Rumors are unconfirmed news in widespread circulation. They arise and spread when people are uncertain and anxious about a subject they deem important, and the rumor appears to offer a viable explanation. When desired information is withheld, unavailable or distrusted, rumors are likely to increase, for rumors help people make sense of the world. They thrive in times of uncertainty or social distress, like during war or natural disasters, or when access to credible information is lacking. For this study, I employed current psychological rumor theories to analyze circulating rumors in Baghdad and discern the primary concerns and sentiments of the Iraqi people. I created a typology of rumor subjects consisting of 8 overarching categories, which successfully highlights specific Iraqi concerns. The most dominant or significant themes of each category are presented here.