Saving America from Itself; Avoiding the Fallen Empire Syndrome

摘要

U.S. national security strategy embodies the four elements of national power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME). None of these elements can be the sole building block upon which the United States or any nation can stand as a world power. This paper analyzes U.S. strengths and weaknesses according to the DIME formula and contrasts its strategic position with other world powers identified by former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in his 1994 book 'Diplomacy.' Kissinger states that the 21st century 'will contain at least six major power centers -- the United States, Europe, China, Japan, Russia, and probably India.' Statistical indicators are used for each area of the DIME construct to evaluate nations' present day strategic situation and potential outcomes for 2050. Statistical analysis of key indicators shows that China will emerge as the major strategic competitor with the United States by mid-century, and the European Union, Japan, and the United States will decline as world powers. This is due primarily to trends in economic growth, military spending, and information technology investment and development. The United States must do three things to improve its chances of survival as a world power: (1) the U.S. Government must reorganize itself to better focus its limited resources on maintaining and fostering the elements of national power; (2) the U.S. Government must address three negative economic issues -- the federal budget deficit, the trade deficit, and consumer debt; and (3) the United States must work to reshape the global political landscape to better position itself for emerging global politics. This includes significant reform of the United Nations or possibly organizing a new world body with democracy as the basis for membership.