BMD Agents: An Agent-Based Framework to Model Ballistic Missile Defense Strategies

摘要

We introduce a model-based methodology for comparative evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative ballistic missile defense strategies. The major new feature is that BMD is modelled as a distributed system of interacting agents in which some agents are physical (such as sensors and launch systems) and some are rule-based (such as decision makers and threat evaluators). In this model, doctrine, policy and organizational structures are treated as rule-based constraints on system behavior. This will allow both analytical and simulation modeling of alternative BDM strategies based on varying scenarios. Alternative proposals can be evaluated side by side by analysis and simulation of the effects of putting in and taking out physical and rule based agents and constraints for alternative sensors, launch systems, threat-evaluation systems, command and control systems, and doctrine. The effects of alternative organization can be evaluated. We demonstrate the use of the methodology for evaluating three candidate command structures: hierarchical, partially flattened, and flattened.