Impacts of Weather Forecasts on Military Operations: A System for Conducting Quantitative Near-Real Time Analyses

摘要

We have developed, tested, and operationally implemented a web based system for collecting and analyzing in near-real time weather forecast and observational data to assess: (a) the performance of forecasts; and (b) the operational impacts of forecasts. A major goal of the system is to quantify the impacts of weather forecasts on the planning execution and outcomes of military operations. Our tests and implementation were focused on the METOC support provided by Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) Fallon to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) operations at Naval Air Station Fallon. In this application of the system METOC and NSAWC data are collected by NPMOD Fallon personnel and entered via a web interface into a database at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) where the data are analyzed and results are reported in near-real time. The results include quantitative assessments of: (1) forecasts used in planning NSAWC missions (e.g. forecast accuracy probability of detection); (2) changes made during mission planning in response to forecasted weather (e.g. changes in mission schedule targets weapons tactics); (3) deviations from mission plans that occurred during missions in response to weather conditions actually encountered by air crews (e.g. changes in targets weapons delivered tactics); (4) positive and negative impacts on mission planning execution and outcomes due to forecasts (e.g. missions that avoided or incurred delays cancellations inappropriate weapons load outs missions that might have avoided problems had the forecast been followed by mission planners); (5) METOC Tactical Decision Aid forecast accuracy and mission impacts (e.g. TAWS WOF accuracy weather impacts on weapon sensors); and (6) forecast performance and mission impacts with respect to specific weather factors (e.g. surface and aloft winds dust fog).