Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain

摘要

What if the United States lost basing rights in Bahrain. Could the United States continue to achieve U.S. national security goals in the Persian Gulf and surrounding region -- including success in the War on Terrorism and responding to a resurgent Iran -- without the permanent presence of the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet Command, a U.S. Marine Corps amphibious unit, and prepositioned U.S. Air Force materiel in Bahrain. This paper argues that alternate basing and other force posture options can in combination adequately compensate for lost advantages in terms of operational factors: space, time, and force. In fact, the paper argues that such options could better reconcile risks and costs as the military adopts base realignment and force reposturing, enhancing U.S. flexibility, responsiveness, and effectiveness. The loss of Bahrain basing rights might precipitate the inevitable evolution toward a more diversified, technologically advanced and flexible force posture and projection that deemphasizes a robust permanent forward presence, as recommended by recent Pentagon reports. While the paper analyzes the loss of access to Bahrain, the conclusions could apply to the loss of basing privileges in countries throughout the region.