Ukraine After the Orange Revolution: Can It Complete Military Transformation and Join the U.S.-Led War on Terrorism

摘要

Launched almost 5 years ago, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) is a U.S.-led campaign with the twin aims of ending international terrorism through the defeat of terrorist groups, and ending state sponsorship of terrorism. This protracted struggle has taken many forms, ranging from U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to the promotion of democracy in unstable regions. There is a recognition within the U.S. Government that, ultimately, progress in defeating terrorist networks and groups, as well as ending state sponsorship of terrorism, will be dependent upon the sustained efforts of a global coalition. Located at the crossroads of Europe between east and west, Ukraine's pivotal location and recent path towards democracy mean that this state has the potential to play an important role in the global coalition in combating both regional and international terrorism. Ukraine can contribute to the U.S.-led struggle against international terrorism in two ways. First, the consolidation of democracy and democratic control over its armed forces will allow Ukraine to be a force for stability in the Eurasian region. It will give Ukraine the authority and credibility to play a diplomatic and peacekeeping role in frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union. Ukraine can make a second contribution to the U.S.-led defeat of international terrorism through the development of its peacekeeping forces. However, if Ukraine is to realize its potential as an effective U.S. ally in the war on terrorism, it needs to make considerable progress in its military transformation. Successful military transformation, which intrinsically is linked to democratization in Ukraine, will allow Ukraine to continue to provide niche capabilities, with well trained and fully equipped peacekeeping troops able to contribute to the international struggle for peace and stability.