Westernization or Modernization: The Political, Economic and Social Attitudes and Desires of the Post-Khomeini Generation in Iran

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: Does the generation of Iranians born after the 1979 revolution wish to continue living under the system established by Ayatollah Khomeini, or do they wish to modernize (or perhaps westernize) their current political, social, and economic systems. This group is significant because 70% of the population of Iran is under the age of 30, and an amazing 50% is under the age of 21. This paper uses three broad frameworks to examine the attitudes and desires of the post-Khomeini generation in Iran. The three frameworks used are political, economic, and social policies. To distinguish between attitudes and desires, the following definitions are used. 'Attitude' defines how the young Iranians feel, and 'desire' describes what the young Iranians want. Iran's history, its political structure, and the importance of the clerical class in Iran also are examined as background information. The study revealed the following: (1) young Iranians have subordinated their immediate desire for political change for changes in the economic and social policies of Iran, (2) any eventual change in the Iranian political system will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, and (3) the United States Government has little ability to directly influence the attitudes and desires of these young Iranians directly. Despite the latter observation, the United States Government can effectively influence these groups indirectly, through the use of three identified leverage points. The leverage points fall into the general groupings of media, economics, and education. The author contends that there is a low probability that the under-30 generation in Iran will attempt to effect political change in the near future. Sources of information for this paper consisted of published material, including Internet sources and Iranian Web log sites, all written in English.