Long War in Central Asia: Hizb-ut-Tahrir's Caliphate

摘要

One of the effects from the September 11th terrorist attacks was an intensified United States strategic partnership with the Central Asian states. Geographically, Central Asia is critical to the GWOT. In support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in neighboring Afghanistan, many of the Central Asian states provided over-flight access, including basing rights at Kyrgyzstan's Manas Air Base and Uzbekistan's Karshi-Khanabad (K2) air base. Partnership with Central Asian states afforded the United States the strategic and operational freedom of action to win in Afghanistan. After more than four years of an intensified U.S.-Central Asian partnership, regional stability in Central Asia is still threatened by Islamic extremism. Central Asian leaders have argued against liberal reforms in fear of Islamic extremist threats to foment more rebellions. One such threat is the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a transnational, radical Islamist political movement that aims to overthrow a Central Asian government and restore the Islamic Caliphate. The problem is that Hizb-ut-Tahrir is gaining popularity in Central Asia. The monograph's thesis is that the Central Asia region is at risk of devolving into a major front in the GWOT in the long term if the United States fails to use its influence to counter the Islamic extremist threat presented by Hizb-ut-Tahrir (Islamic Party of Liberation). The question this monograph attempts to answer is as follows: Can the Hizb-ut- Tahrir's ideology form the basis for a destabilizing collective movement in Central Asia. The author contends that it can. He illustrates this potential for destabilization by performing a risk analysis of Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is the subject of analysis because it is the only Central Asian country where the United States maintains a major military base. The author also proposes a number of U.S. and Central Asian government responses to the growing threat from Hizb-ut-Tahrir.