Modeling Jihad: A System Dynamics Model of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat Financial Subsystem (Strategic Insights, Volume V, Issue 8 November 2006)

摘要

This paper will describe the authors' efforts to model the financial operations and organizational behavior of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (known by its French initials, GSPC), using Stella(R) version 9.0, a commercially-available system dynamics software package. The model aggregates empirical knowledge and collective expert opinion on the GSPC financial subsystem into a single cognitive tool. 1) Using the model for exploratory analysis suggests answers to questions such as how funding affects the quantity and type of GSPC operations, how the financial and operational aspects of the organization change over its life cycle, and what policymakers should expect next from the GSPC. Finally, the model allows users to see the full range of effects from different policy choices, including effects policymakers may not intend.