Democracy - A Tree Without Roots on the Steppes of Central Asia

摘要

This thesis combines transitology and structural analyses to examine the obstacles to democracy in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The transitology approach analyzes the impact of domestic political factors (clan politics, corruption, and political Islam) and external influences on each country's transition to post-communist rule. The structural analysis focuses on those economic and societal factors that impact the country's ability to foster and sustain democratic reforms. For both countries, the complex interplay of clan politics and rampant corruption is the dominant factor in stifling democratic reforms. External influences were important in the case of Kyrgyzstan, though not determining, but were basically inconsequential in Uzbekistan. In each country, economic underdevelopment has stifled the emergence of a large middle class and served as a catalyst for societal dissatisfaction. The United States must continue to assist Kyrgyzstan in completing its economic reform agenda and play a greater role in helping guide amendments to the constitution. In Uzbekistan, the United States must rely on economic reform incentives tied to concrete milestones and look to engage the next generation of leaders with targeted assistance to achieve political and economic reforms.