U.S. Policy Towards an Emerging Iranian-Shia Hegemon

摘要

Iran is pursuing a public nuclear policy that it hopes will make it a regional hegemon, and give it international respect. The Persian Gulf is a vital region that America and its trading powers require to maintain their economies. A disruption of Persian Gulf petroleum production and export will have a global economic impact. To avoid a conflict with a burgeoning nuclear power in this vital region, the United States must engage Iran immediately, and if required, unilaterally. There are five recommended actions along the lines of the elements of national power within a United States engagement policy towards an emerging Iranian hegemon. First, the United States should normalize diplomatic relations with Iran so it can communicate with it directly. Second, American information operations should accentuate the positive steps made by Iran. American messages directed towards the Iranian people should focus on cooperation with regard to the collective security interests of both nations. Third, the United States should remain in Iraq until it is stable, so that a fully functioning Iraq can balance Iran's power in the region. Beyond the stabilization of Iraq, America should maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf to demonstrate a commitment to security and to react to threats in the region. Fourth, America should initiate an economic revival with Iran by incrementally decreasing sanctions against American businesses there and lifting the U.S. boycott of Iranian products sold to the United States. Fifth, the United States should work with coalition partners multilaterally to maintain pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program through international organizations and direct dialog.