Avoiding Downward Security Spirals in Northeast Asia: The Gradual Transition to a Militarily 'Normalized' Japan

摘要

The world is on the verge of a dramatic shift in security relations in Northeast Asia. With a rising China and a Japan emerging as a normal military power by revising the pacifist clause of its constitution (Article 9), many analysts argue that the new century may bring with it increased instability to the region. With this forecast in mind, this thesis explores how the United States should approach a militarily normalizing Japan. The primary questions that will be analyzed are: (1) Will the current ad hoc movement towards the revision of Article 9 (Renunciation of War Clause) be the impetus for a downward security spiral in Northeast Asia; (2) What should U.S. policy be towards the revision of Article 9; and (3) Should the United States push for further normalization and burden sharing in security relations. This thesis concludes that to ameliorate the security tensions in the region, the United States should implement three policy prescriptions that will increase the transparency and the time horizon associated with this dramatic shift in Japan's military restraints. Thus, avoiding downward security spirals in Northeast Asia by encouraging a gradual transition to a militarily Normalized Japan.