Changing Homeland Security: Shape, Patterns, Not Programs

摘要

What is a homeland security future worth creating. Each of us could posit an answer to that question. After enough talk, we would probably agree on the broad outlines of a desirable future. Eventually we could develop a strategy for implementing that vision or at least some of it within the next ten years. But as the years passed, our vision would encounter the tedium of incrementalism, the discontinuity of unexpected disappointment, and the surprise of unearned fortune. Nietzsche wrote about this process: To make plans and project designs brings with it many good sensations; and whoever had the strength to be nothing but a forger of plans his whole life long would be a very happy man. But he would occasionally have to take a rest from this activity by carrying out a plan and then comes the vexation and the sobering up. Homeland security strategy defined as the pattern of consistent behavior over time is both intentional and emergent. The homeland security community does a continually improving job identifying and enacting intended strategy. The community is less effective explicitly acknowledging and integrating emergent strategy. We can do better. Getting where we want to be in the next decade will be somewhat like driving at night. We know broadly what our destination could be. But we see only as far as our headlights shine and we do not know what we will encounter on the road. This essay describes a framework that can help keep the homeland security community between the white lines on the road to a future worth creating. It recommends a strategic process that incorporates the dynamic realities of complex adaptive systems. It asserts that recognizing and managing systemic patterns rather than focusing on programs would benefit homeland security.