Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection

摘要

When are terrorists likeliest to attack next. Will they use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons or resort to sabotage or conventional attacks. What locations and facilities will they target. What economic impact would a conventional attack on a piece of critical infrastructure have in comparison with a nuclear attack. The Office of Intelligence and Analysis (OI&A) at DHS is responsible for using information and intelligence from multiple sources to identify and assess current and future threats to the United States. This report documents the results of analysis using a risk-analysis tool, the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model, to help OI&A with this challenge.