Assessing the Risk of Catastrophic Cyber Attack: Lessons from the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission.

摘要

Reflecting on the similarities between cyber and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, the authors of this Note believe that the approach the EMP Commission used to assess the likelihood and consequences of EMP attacks could provide useful lessons for analysts grappling with the analogous assessment of cyber attacks. To draw such lessons, we need to describe the EMP Commission mandate, describe its approach to addressing that mandate, assess the achievements realized in employing that approach, and understand the extent to which the EMP and cyber attack problems are similar and different. While we draw lessons for cyber analysts, we do not provide recommendations, which should be based on a broader analysis than we have conducted.