Chinese Perceptions of Traditional and Nontraditional Security Threats

摘要

This research is an attempt to understand the motivations and decisions of China's leadership by examining the writings and opinions of China's scholars, journalists, and leaders -- its influential elite. It will show that China has a comprehensive concept of national security that includes not only defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, but continuing its economic and social development and maintaining its international stature. There are two main types of threats to China's national security: traditional and nontraditional. Traditional threats can be characterized loosely as threats to a nation emanating from other nations and involving a military component. While the most talked-about threat to China's territory is a declaration of independence by Taiwan, the influential elite actually find this possibility unlikely. The focus is therefore on the few countries considered both capable of and willing to endanger all three of China's components of national security: sovereignty, economic development, and international stature. The United States, Japan, and India have significant ideological, historical, or territorial disagreements with China and possess the military, economic, and/or international diplomatic means to go to battle over such differences. While China's influential elite are concerned about a direct military confrontation with the United States, Japan, and India, they are far more concerned about the possibility of containment efforts by any, or all, of these countries. Even more troublesome to China's security environment are nontraditional threats. This monograph also focuses on three nontraditional threats to China: economic and social disparities within China, environmental degradation, and energy insecurity. China's nontraditional threats are more menacing than traditional ones because they require China's leadership to not only look outward to foster cooperation, but also to look inward and make serious internal reforms.