Creation of a Dynamical Stratospheric Turbulence Forecasting and Nowcasting Tool for High Altitude Airships and Other Aircraft; Final rept

摘要

We have now completed a Phase II development of an atmospheric decision aid (ADA) forecasting methodology for military, civilian, and commercial aircraft for which significant wave and turbulence activity may pose an operational or functional risk. The specific goal for MDA purposes was to create a forecasting methodology for turbulence activity at the expected High Altitude Airship (HAA) flight altitude of 22 km that specifically addresses all of the dominant sources of turbulence in the clear atmosphere. These include turbulence accompanying gravity waves arising from deep convection, those arising due to air flow over significant terrain, and turbulence due to Kelvin- Helmholtz instability (KHI) accompanying wind shears arising from jet stream flows and inertia-gravity wave motions in the lower stratosphere. The motivations for our approach and the specific methodologies employed for each component of the turbulence forecast were described in previous reports. This final report summarizes our development effort and the resulting turbulence forecast product that accompanies it and which is provided as a suite of operational scripts and executable files. The operational and support environment for the forecasting methodology are described in Section 2. Examples of the forecast output for various sources and environments are provided in Section 3. Section 4 briefly describes the required operational environment. A separate HAA/TURBO Users Manual also accompanies this report and the scripts and executable forecasting files.