Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the Afghan National Security Forces Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan.

摘要

A new paper, article, or book seemingly appears almost daily about the future of Afghanistan, generally ruminating on ifs and unknowns before concluding that the outcome remains uncertain. In fact, the outcome in Afghanistan and the events of the next 5 years are not difficult to foresee, and there is not really any realistic doubt about this outcome. Everything else is whistling past the strategic graveyard and magical thinking.2 The conclusions drawn here are entirely in accord with the consensus of the U.S. intelligence community, as set out in the unclassified portions of a series of National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) released to the public.3 Indeed, this book is derived entirely from unclassified and publicly available documents and information sources, together with the author s interviews and conversations in unclassified public fora.